Eric Lin/Duke Chronicle
This has a been a long, arduous week for students and basketball players alike with finals taking precedent over on-court action. For those concerned with the on-court product though, Duke’s future is cause for equal parts excitement and concern after getting a look at a few future Blue Devils this week.
Incoming guard Matt Jones and potential commit Jabari Parker were on national television Thursday with Jones showcasing an improved all-around game and Parker showing everyone how far he’s come back from a foot injury. Another signee, Semi Ojeleye, scored 58 points in a game last week causing many fans to wonder just how good the Blue Devils could be down the road.
Looking at the potential roster for next season, however, a startling trend emerges. Just as this year’s roster has a logjam at the small/power forward position, next year’s will have a similar problem with the two wing positions. Ryan Kelly, Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry will all be gone, leaving three rotation spots for the two (possibly three) incoming players.
Quinn Cook and Tyler Thornton will be back as primary ballhandlers, Rasheed Sulaimon will be back on the wing and Josh Hairston will still be banging the boards. Alex Murphy, Amile Jefferson and Marshall Plumlee should see bumps in playing time with Marshall taking his brother’s post in the…well, post.
Also in the fold will be Rodney Hood, a 6-foot-8 wing player, and Andre Dawkins, a shooting guard.
Thornton, Sulaimon, Jones, Ojeleye, Hood, Dawkins and Murphy are all primarily wing players but Mike Krzyzewski‘s system only calls for three or four to be heavily involved. Sulaimon will lock down one wing with Thornton likely in the mix at the other — as has been the case much of this year.
That leaves the other five players competing for minutes at the “3″ spot. Murphy and Hood could be better served adding weight and competing with Jefferson and Hairston at the four, but even that situation gets complicated if Parker decides to come to Durham.
So what is the solution? Who are the odd men out? While the team will be good regardless of who plays, the decision to sit a player like Murphy a lot for a second-straight year could hurt his confidence or even lead to a transfer situation.
Here are some key points to think about with this potential roster.
- With no post players coming in, Hairston and Marshall Plumlee must remain members of the rotation.
- Cook and Sulaimon will start, the other wing slot is up for grabs.
- Murphy makes the most sense as Kelly’s successor in that stretch-four role, but Jefferson, Hood and Parker would be good options as well.
- Thornton will be involved, to what extent is the real question.
There will be plenty of talk about this leading up to and throughout next season. While having too much talent is never a bad thing, the risk of hurting a young player’s confidence or forcing a player to consider transferring can be detrimental to a team’s depth.
If I had it my way, this is how the rotation would look next season. In the parentheses is the change should Parker come.
- Cook, Sulaimon, Jones, Murphy, Plumlee as starters. (Parker for Murphy)
- Thornton, Hairston, Hood as primary substitutes. (Murphy plugs in here, Hood slides down)
- Ojeleye, Jefferson become situational subs. (Hood slides in)
- Dawkins provides depth, but never really becomes a factor.
It hurts me to keep Dawkins on the outside looking in and to bury Ojeleye that low, but if we’ve learned anything from this season it’s that Krzyzewski cherishes his depth and most players are able to accept their roles. If next year’s team can follow suit, this could be a very memorable two-year stretch for Duke basketball.
Jimmy Kelley is the founder and lead writer for Devils in Durham. Follow him on Twitter @JKell17
Michael Z
December 15, 2012
Jones as a starter? I’m not sure what you’ve heard of Hood, but he would almost certainly be our number 2 option on offense this year, and maybe even number one, if he was eligible. He’s a projected lottery pick with prototypical length, skill and athleticism for the 3, and he would be guaranteed a starting position with upwards of 30 minutes a night. If Parker comes to Duke, I would guess he starts at the 4, with Josh spelling Marshall for a few minutes a night and Amile and Alex fighting for the reserve spot at the 4.
Jimmy Kelley
December 15, 2012
All valid points. If what you see in Hood is true, then I hope I’m wrong. I just see Jones as a more natural fit for the offense, being a better outside shooter and creator with the ball in his hand.
I like Hood as a change of pace, bigger guard who can be physical and carry the offense for stretches of time. But a No. 1 option? I’m not sold.
c
December 15, 2012
Everybody who has seen the practice says rodney hood is the best player on the team this year, jones is a good player but he’s not that good, he has improved his ballhandling but he can’t create his own shot hood can score from anywhere on the court check his freshmen year highlight tape against d1 competition
Tarik B.
December 15, 2012
I agree with @Michael Z. You may want to consider doing some more research on Hood. He’s a safe bet to start next year (especially since he’ll have a years worth of practice time to pick up the D). Therefore, your starters would most likely be Cook and Sulaimon in the backcourt, Hood at the 3, and Plumlee and true frosh Jabari Parker* (*if he chooses Duke) are the bigs.
Let’s pause for a moment and consider that line-up! But I digress…
Moving on: that gives you a likely second unit of Hairston, Jefferson, Murphy, Dawkins and Thornton. Your other two true frosh, Jones and Ojeleye – as many true frosh due under Coach K – may only see spot duty in most games (and get legit burn in the non-conference “gimme” games). (Of course, a lot of these decisions will be determined by how quickly the frosh pick up the D – the better they are on D, the more burn they’ll get.)
*If Parker picks Michigan St., BYU, Florida or some other program, you rotate between Jefferson and Murphy at the 4. (Not a bad tandem to choose/rotate between, but here’s hoping Parker chooses Duke.)
I also (respectfully of course) disagree with your overall assessment. The last time Duke had a comparable embarrassment of riches (*again, presuming Parker picks Duke) was the 1998-1999 squad (Brand, Langdon, Avery, Maggette, Carawell, Battier, James, Burgess, Domzalski, etc.) that lost only 2 games and was one poor coaching decision away from a National Championship. (I’ll always appreciate Coach K’s devotion to his Sr. players, but the way Avery was dominating that game, and because Langdon was never one to create his own shots off the dribble, Avery should have brought the ball up court and looked for Langdon coming off of multiple designed screens.) If you’ll recall, that team pressed – a lot! (Think Nolan Richardson’s “40 minutes of hell!” at Arkansas in the ’90′s). With the type of athleticism and depth next years squad is projected to have, they would be able to employ a similar full-court and/or 3/4 court trapping press for much of the game. This translates into a ton of transition opportunities (and we ain’t seen nothing yet from Cook; he’s pass game is way sicker than it looks now). All that run’n and gun’ (ala the 1988-1990 UNLV Runnin Rebels) requires a rotation of 8-10 players (all getting legit run).
Just my 2-cents.
LET’S GO DUKE
Jimmy Kelley
December 15, 2012
I hope youre right, sir. ill hold judgement until I see him in action with this team. I hope youre vision for next year comes true, those teams were fun to watch.
Reese
December 15, 2012
Hood will be the #1 option next year, at worst #2 because of the rust from sitting out a year. Jones will certainly come off the bench.Coach K told Rodney Hood quote,that he was going to make him the best player in the country, to get him. His former coach and former teammates said that he did all that he did as a freshmen while trying not to outshine his teammates. Check him out on youtube playing last year and thats with a very talented team.
Line up will probably be Cook,Sulaimon,Hood,Plumlee and (Parker) if he decides Duke or Hairston.
Hood will probably not be a 1 and done with Duke like most think because he speaks very highly about academics, i think he will do 2 years.